Chart of the month
Fourth quarter seasonality is strong
10 October 2021
Stock markets have performed better than many expected at the beginning of 2021. Will it continue?
No-one knows but a look at historical performance suggest so.
There's tons of arguments on various platforms about expensive stocks, narrow leadership, costs inflation from logistics and component shortage as well s inflation will remain at a high level.
Low population growth, modest productivity growth and surplus capital suggest the current inflation jump will fade over the next 12-18 months. That will be very supportive for financial assets and as the mood change well in advance then the better times could show up already in 4Q 2021
Below is 25 year seasonality charts fot S&P500 and Stoxx 600
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