Nordic Investment Partners
About Nordic Investment Partners
Nordic Investment Partners was founded in 2017 by Ole Søeberg. Ole has a broad and long experience in global equity markets since early 1980's. He has been in investment banking, Investor Relations in large corporates and Asset Management and in various leadership roles.
Nordic Investment Partners functions as a family office and consultancy within global equity investment strategies. Consultancy, education and inspiration for investment strategies provided.
Investors interested in a similar investment strategy are kindly suggested to take a look at Brock Milton Capital investment funds.
Investment inspiration and education for family offices and smaller investment funds. Focus on wealth preservation and capital growth using GARP and deep due diligence. External roadmaps was provided free on a quarterly basis, however in a digital world there's too much copying, so from 2025 it's no longer provided for free, but only to paying investors such as Nordic Value participants, Brock Milton co-investors, co-board members etc. The roadmaps have worked quite well in the past and they stimulate my investment passion and curiousity .
Introducer for Brock Milton Capital Link
Global long only, concentrated portfolio of 30-35 companies. High quality 'champions' and a smaller section of 'special situations'. Growth without overpaying. BMC Global turned 10 years old in December 2024 and is among 1% best global long only funds
Since inception in 2014 the fund has returned 15% per year (in SEK) and 3% better than MSCI World. The fund's founder Andreas Brock has made this book for better insight in the investment thinking
Nordic Value investment learning and inspiration 'not-for-profit' conference for experienced equity investors. Check the Nordic Value tab for more
Contributor and/or speaker at Børsen All-Star team, Cyprus Value, ValuEspana, ValuX, Miilionærklubben, MOI Global and SumZero and other. Investor idea sharing and always good education and inspiration
Reach out if you're interested knowing more.
You can reach me on ole.soeberg@nordic-investment-partners.com or via the contact box
On this website you find
Investment roadmaps and quarterly updates for inspiration and education only
Nordic Value Conference - a conference for investment entusiast sharing investment ideas. More on Nordic Value section on this site
Pitches and illustration for investment proces for a single company
Contact
Nordic Investment Partners is owned by Ole Søeberg. More on LinkedIn
info@nordic-investment-partners.com
Fell free to reach out via the boxes below:
Monthly observation
The genie is out of the bottle
22 April 2025
The previous update focused on navigating low-visibility environments. Since Trump's so-called "Liberation Day," political leaders, corporations, consumers, and financial markets have been plunged into unprecedented turmoil.
Even during periods of uncertainty, it’s essential to evaluate potential paths forward.
Here’s one potential path:
The United States bears sole responsibility for its high debt levels and trade deficit. No external force told United States to pursue the path since 1980s. For decades, American consumers embraced cheaper goods manufactured in low-income countries and imported into the U.S. Over 30–40 years, this practice has created a significant trade deficit that cannot be easily remedied.
While U.S. government spending has not exceeded that of comparable nations, tax revenue has been consistently lower. As a result, government debt as a percentage of GDP has reached levels comparable to the end of World War II—an unsustainable situation in the long term.
The U.S. needs to adopt a "kartoffelkur" approach link
The solution lies in higher taxes and reduced government spending. These measures are expected to be implemented in 2025–26, with noticeable improvements by late 2026. For sustainable development, the U.S. must incentivize corporations to relocate production domestically. However, this will only occur if the return on invested capital in the U.S. surpasses that in low-income countries. Given the wage disparity—minimum wages in the U.S. range from $15–20 per hour compared to $3–4 per hour in low-income countries—this shift seems unlikely. Why would American workers produce goods like shoes or jeans under such conditions?
The solution lies in significantly boosting productivity, though this poses challenges due to the limited educational attainment of much of the population. Approximately 60% of Americans complete their schooling by the age of 16–17.
To improve productivity, the U.S. should focus on industries where it holds leadership potential. These include software, semiconductor design, technology, healthcare, and entertainment. While enhanced productivity in these sectors may not immediately benefit former autoworkers or workers in industries that have relocated overseas, it represents a critical step toward long-term economic stability.
How will this impact the economy and financial markets?
The United States is a relatively closed economy, with imports accounting for 14% of GDP and exports 11%. A 10% import tax could lead to a 1.4% increase in inflation, assuming the tariff hike is fully passed on to consumers. After 12 months, inflation would stabilize at this higher level. However, during this period, the economy is likely to slow down due to reduced government spending and weaker consumption affected by the import tariffs. Consequently, underlying inflation may decrease, and economic growth could drop to 0–1%, compared to the previously anticipated 2%.
Corporations would adapt their strategies to mitigate the impact, but short-term earnings would inevitably suffer. Prior to "Liberation Day," the 2025–26 EPS estimates for the S&P 500 were $272 and $307. With 5-10% import tariffs and a mild economic slowdown, these figures are likely to fall to $265 and $290. EPS projections for 2027 and 2028 may also face downward revisions. By 2028, however, the adjustment process should be largely complete, and the current $370 estimate may not be far off.
As inflation decreases, valuation multiples are expected to remain elevated above the long-term average of 16.6x, aligning more closely with the latest five-year average of 21x. This suggests a potential S&P 500 level of 7,750 in 2028, compared to the current 5,400—a 44% upside, plus annual dividends of 2%.
This outlook diverges significantly from consensus forecasts by investment banks and carries several risks that must be monitored in 2025. These include the possibility of a mild economic slowdown escalating into a recession in the U.S., international investors selling USD based assets, and the potential for Trump's rhetoric to remain volatile, delaying constructive trade agreements and the economic reset.
Regardless, the genie is out of the bottle and you cannot not put it back in the bottle. The path forward will consequently differ dramatically from the trajectories of the past 50–70 years.
This summary is based on a longer Danish-language article by Nordic Investment Partners.
