Nordic Investment Partners was founded in 2017 by Ole Søeberg and is in essence a mix of family office and advisory services based on my experience in financial marekts since early 1980'ies. The experience is almost evenly spread in investment banking, Investor Relations and Asset Management and in various leadership roles.
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Were are not out of the woods yet
16 November 2022
Stock markets are up 5-8% since US inflation for October 2022 showed at better than expected print of 7.7% vs expected 8.0%
Inflation is nevertheless significantly above the 2% target levels. This means central banks will continue to have the foot on the brake and they will not remove it before activity levels fall and inflation goes away. By spring 2023 inflation could be in the 4-5% range from current 8-10%. That would be a big relief, but it comes at the expense of lower activity and fewer jobs.
The relief rally in November 2022 hence looks a bit premature as fundamentals only in 2024 start to look more bright again. And if the economic slowdown develops into a deep recession that is not at all reflected in stock prices (S&P500 at 4.000 and Stoxx600 at 430)
Based on the expected sales and earnings in 2022-24 one can make a simple illutration that suggest the roadmap as below. If it's mild recession it's not going to get much worse than now and we should be thru by summer next year. If it's a deep recession, then it's the red line and a recoup to 2021 highs will take until 2025-26
Below is the chart of MSCI World ratio since 2015