Nordic Investment Partners was founded in 2017 by Ole Søeberg. Ole has a broad and long experience in global equity markets since early 1980's. He has been in investment banking, Investor Relations in large corporates and Asset Management and in various leadership roles.
Nordic Investment Partners functions as a family office. However, being a long term investor there's time for other activities such as;
Advisory, research and consultancy is provided within
Reach out if you're interested knowing more. You can reach me on firstname.lastname@example.org
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No one rings a bell at the peak
23 October 2023
By end July 2023 stock markets were at the highest levels in 2023. Since then the indicies are down 8-10%. Why is that ?
10 year government bond yields have risen from nothing in 2021 to give you 5% yield in USA and 3% in Euriope. From return free risk to the more normal risk free return rate. While bonds do not grow their returns at least you don't have to think about how companies sales and earnings will perform. A lot of investors that normally only save in bonds and cash moved to the stock market when 10-year bond yields where zero. I call those investors for stock market tourist as they are normally not interested in the stock market. And they are with good reason leaving stocks now as they get a decent return on bonds. Unfortunately, some of those investors did not get positive returns so they will likely not return to stock markets in a foreseeable future.
Timing the markets is very difficult, however direction and what Mr Market thinks about the future can be derived from a few data points. The US market is the drum beat for global stocks. US is valued at 17x 2024 earnings or a earnings yield of 5.8%. Thats a small margin to the 5% interest rate on 10 year bonds. On top stock market investors in S&P500 have the opportunity and risk that 2024 earnings will differ from the current estimate of 247$. Its could be 200-220$ in a modest recession and it could be 265$ if inflation fades away and global acivity picks up.
No-one knows and there's no bells ringing when markets peak and bottom
If you just wait long enough stock prices will follow earnings and in the long run earnings tend to go up faster than the overall increase in economic activity levels. And by the end of 2025 global stocks could be past the peak from January 2022.